Wildfire Defensible Space ROI Estimator
Measure whether creating defensible space and hardening your home pencils out by combining project cost, insurance savings, and expected loss avoidance over a ten-year horizon.
Expected loss modeling is a simplification. Validate assumptions with your insurer, local fire authority, or a risk engineer before committing to major mitigation spend.
Examples
- $18,000 mitigation, $1,050 discount, 6% probability, $650,000 rebuild, 10-year horizon ⇒ Total benefit $49,500.00, net gain $31,500.00, ROI 175.00%, payback 17.14 years.
- $9,500 mitigation, $420 discount, 3% probability, $450,000 rebuild, 12-year horizon ⇒ Total benefit $18,540.00, net gain $9,040.00, ROI 95.16%, payback 22.62 years.
FAQ
Should I discount future premium savings?
For capital budgeting, apply your preferred discount rate to annual savings outside this calculator, or shorten the horizon to reflect a planned sale or refinance.
How do I handle multi-phase mitigation projects?
Run the numbers for each phase, then add incremental discounts or probability reductions to see which investments deliver the best marginal ROI.
Can this model reflect wildfire probability reductions?
If your mitigation lowers risk, rerun the calculator with the post-project probability to see how much expected loss drops and adjust the avoided-loss input accordingly.
What if insurers remove discounts after a claim?
Use a shorter discount horizon or lower discount amount to simulate carriers pulling credits post-claim; this will lower the ROI and extend payback.
Additional Information
- Wildfire probability should reflect authoritative risk maps or insurer modeling for your address over a ten-year span.
- Insurance discounts often require proof of maintenance—keep photo documentation, invoices, and inspection reports to preserve the credit.
- Avoided loss value uses expected loss (probability × rebuild cost) rather than catastrophic loss; update after reinspections or valuation changes.
- Pair the calculator with grant research so federal, state, or utility incentives can reduce upfront cost and accelerate payback.