Raffle Win Probability

Quickly translate the number of raffle tickets you control into a percentage chance of winning a single-draw prize. Enter your tickets alongside the total sold to see transparent odds before you commit to another bundle.

Count every unique ticket number you control, including any purchased on behalf of friends or pooled entries.
Use the final ticket count published by the organizer so the denominator matches the drawing drum or spreadsheet.

Official raffle rules may include multiple drawings, bonus entries, or minimum sales thresholds that affect the odds. Review the event terms before relying on this quick estimate.

Examples

  • 5 of 500 tickets ⇒ 1.00% win probability
  • 12 of 2,400 tickets ⇒ 0.50% win probability
  • 60 of 7,500 tickets ⇒ 0.80% win probability
  • 150 of 10,000 tickets ⇒ 1.50% win probability
  • 750 of 18,000 tickets ⇒ 4.17% win probability

FAQ

What happens if more tickets are released after I buy mine?

Update the total ticket count with the organizer's final number. Your percentage drops proportionally when the denominator grows.

How do I evaluate raffles with several prizes or drawings?

Run the calculator for each individual prize, then combine the results with a hypergeometric or binomial model if you need the probability of winning at least once.

Can the probability ever exceed 100%?

No. If the formula returns more than 100%, verify that the total ticket count is not smaller than the number of tickets you hold.

Do shared, gifted, or syndicate tickets change the calculation?

No. The math depends only on how many unique ticket identifiers you control, regardless of whose name appears on the stub.

Does buying tickets at the last minute increase my chances?

Timing does not affect fair drawings. Only the final totals matter, so late purchases help only if they raise your share of the total tickets.

How can I express the odds as "1 in N"?

Divide the total ticket count by the number you hold. For example, owning 25 of 5,000 tickets equals a 1 in 200 chance (0.5%).

Additional Information

  • Formula: win probability (%) = (tickets you hold ÷ total tickets) × 100. The same ratio expressed as 1 in N equals total tickets ÷ tickets owned.
  • Assumes a fair single drawing without replacement. If the organizer offers bonus entries or multi-winner drawings, compute each prize separately or switch to a hypergeometric model.
  • Always refresh the total ticket count once sales close—late entrants dilute your odds linearly, even if your own ticket count stays constant.
  • For transparency, share both the percentage and the 1-in-N odds with teammates or clients evaluating fundraising raffles.

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