Premium Cabin Upgrade Bid Evaluator

Pressure-test your airline upgrade bid. Enter the published business fare, what you already paid in economy, and the bid amount to see savings versus buying the cabin outright, expected value at your win probability, and the break-even odds required to justify the offer.

Published cash fare for the business or first-class seat on the same flight.
Total you paid for the existing ticket including taxes and carrier-imposed fees.
Cash you intend to bid (or pay) for the upgrade offer.
Optional. Your best estimate of the upgrade clearing (historical win rate or load factor). Defaults to 50% if blank.
Optional. Dollar value of bonus miles, lounge credits, or vouchers received with the upgrade. Defaults to $0 if blank.

For trip-planning insights only. Confirm fare rules, upgrade eligibility, and bid billing practices with your airline before submitting an offer.

Examples

  • $3,450 business fare, $875 economy fare, $620 bid, 45% win odds, $60 perks ⇒ Cash difference between cabins: $2,575.00 USD • Savings versus buying business outright: $1,955.00 USD • Upgrade surplus if accepted (including perks): $2,015.00 USD • Expected value at 45.00% win odds: $906.75 USD gain • Break-even win probability: 23.53%.
  • $2,200 business fare, $1,050 economy fare, $700 bid, probability blank, no perks ⇒ Cash difference between cabins: $1,150.00 USD • Savings versus buying business outright: $450.00 USD • Upgrade surplus if accepted (including perks): $450.00 USD • Expected value at 50.00% win odds: $225.00 USD gain • Break-even win probability: 60.87%.

FAQ

How do I value loyalty miles earned in business?

Estimate their dollar value using your preferred cents-per-mile metric and enter it in the perks field so the upgrade surplus reflects the additional rebate.

What if the business fare changes after I bid?

Re-run the calculator with the updated published fare to confirm whether the bid is still attractive compared with buying the seat outright.

Can I compare multiple bid amounts?

Yes. Try different bid values to see how the expected value and break-even probability shift, then choose the amount that fits your risk tolerance.

Do I include taxes on the bid?

If the airline charges taxes or card fees on successful upgrades, add them to the bid amount so the analysis reflects your true cash outlay.

Additional Information

  • Savings versus cash fare compares your bid to the fare difference published today.
  • Expected value multiplies the upgrade surplus by the win probability you provide.
  • Break-even probability tells you the minimum win rate needed so the bid is neutral in value.

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