Peak-Time Rebate Heat Pump ROI Calculator

Forecast incentive income and simple payback before joining a peak-time rebate or demand response program. Provide the rebate per event and the number of events, then optionally add avoided energy savings, control costs, and participation rate to surface annual cash value, value per event, and the hardware payback timeline.

Typical incentive payout your utility offers each event (before taxes, if any).
Expected number of demand response or peak-time rebate events you intend to participate in this year.
Multiply the kWh you shed by your retail rate; defaults to $0 if you skip this.
Include device, installation, and enrollment costs; defaults to $0 if you already own the controls.
Leave at 100% for perfect participation or reduce it to reflect events you plan to skip.

Examples

  • $45 rebate, 18 events, $12 avoided energy per event, $225 thermostat, 90% participation ⇒ 16.20 effective events, $729.00 USD in rebates, $194.40 USD avoided energy, $923.40 USD total value, $57.00 USD per event, and a 0.24-year hardware payback.
  • $70 rebate, 10 events, no energy savings, 60% participation ⇒ 6.00 effective events, $420.00 USD in annual rebates, and $70.00 USD value per event with no equipment cost to amortize.

FAQ

How do multi-hour events change the inputs?

If events routinely extend beyond the default duration you used to estimate avoided energy, scale the per-event savings so the calculator reflects the longer runtime.

Can I include sign-up bonuses or bill credits?

Yes. Add one-time enrollment bonuses to the smart thermostat cost as a negative number or increase the rebate per event to reflect annual bill credits that come with participation.

What if I pair the heat pump with battery storage?

Model the thermal load reduction here and use the battery demand charge avoidance calculator to capture additional savings, then add the totals to understand stacked revenue.

Do utilities tax rebate payouts?

Many utilities issue 1099s for incentive income. If yours does, reduce the rebate per event by the expected tax impact so the annual value reflects after-tax cash flow.

Additional Information

  • Effective events equal scheduled events multiplied by the participation rate so skipped events do not overstate savings.
  • Annual value combines rebate income and avoided energy cost to capture both bill credits and kWh savings.
  • Value per event divides annual value by effective events, helping homeowners compare multiple demand response offers.
  • Payback period divides hardware cost by annual value to express breakeven in years; 0 years means no additional hardware is needed.

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