Paid Search Lead Arbitration ROI Calculator

Estimate the upside from contesting bad paid search leads. Provide monthly eligible spend, the invalid lead rate, and your historical refund win rate to uncover disputed dollars, expected credits, processing costs, platform fees, and the net ROI that recovered funds deliver back to campaigns. Optional fields capture arbitration labor and any percentage that vendors retain from approved credits.

Paid search budget subject to dispute or refund claims for invalid leads.
Percentage of spend producing leads eligible for arbitration based on platform evidence requirements.
Percentage of disputed spend typically approved for credit or refunds.
Optional — defaults to $1,500.00 when blank. Covers analyst hours or vendor fees to pursue disputes.
Optional — defaults to 0.00% when blank. Apply if marketplaces retain a percentage of recovered credits.

Results are directional. Validate dispute eligibility, evidence requirements, and vendor contracts before forecasting refunds in your budget.

Examples

  • Example 1 — $120,000.00 eligible spend, 18.00% invalid rate, 45.00% success rate, $1,500.00 processing cost, 5.00% platform fee ⇒ Disputed spend identified: $21,600.00 (USD) | Expected refunds approved: $9,720.00 (USD) | Processing cost: $1,500.00 (USD) | Platform fees: $486.00 (USD) | Net recovered funds: $7,734.00 (USD) | Recovery rate on spend: 6.45% | ROI on processing cost: 515.60%
  • Example 2 — $55,000.00 eligible spend, 12.00% invalid rate, 35.00% success rate, optional inputs blank ⇒ Disputed spend identified: $6,600.00 (USD) | Expected refunds approved: $2,310.00 (USD) | Processing cost: $1,500.00 (USD) | Platform fees: $0.00 (USD) | Net recovered funds: $810.00 (USD) | Recovery rate on spend: 1.47% | ROI on processing cost: 54.00%

FAQ

How do I incorporate tiered dispute limits per platform?

Cap the invalid lead rate or adjust the refund success rate to reflect the maximum number of credits a platform will approve each cycle.

Can I compare in-house versus outsourced arbitration?

Run the calculator twice with different processing costs and fee rates to measure which option delivers stronger ROI.

What if refunds are issued as future ad credits?

Treat credits as recovered funds since they lower future invoices, and adjust the platform fee rate if vendors retain a share of those credits.

How often should I update the inputs?

Refresh the invalid lead and success rates monthly so you can track whether evidence packages or new keywords improve dispute performance.

How do arbitration filing windows affect the model?

Short filing windows shorten the eligible spend input. Enter only the media dollars still within the platform's submission window so recovered funds remain realistic.

Additional Information

  • Invalid lead rate multiplies the eligible spend to approximate how much budget is disputable in a billing cycle.
  • Refund success rate filters disputed dollars down to the amount typically approved by ad platforms or lead vendors.
  • Processing cost defaults to $1,500.00 to reflect analyst time unless you override it with your actual staffing expense.
  • Platform fee rate accounts for third parties that charge a percentage of recovered credits, reducing net benefit.
  • Outputs assume USD, but you can swap in any currency if spend, refunds, and fees remain consistent.
  • Consider blending recent win rates across engines (Google, Microsoft, Meta) to avoid overestimating recovered credits.

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