Net Revenue Retention Scenario Builder

Forecast how upsell, downsell, and churn dynamics influence net revenue retention (NRR). Enter starting ARR alongside expansion, contraction, and gross churn percentages to surface NRR, gross retention, ending ARR, the incremental revenue delta, and the cash impact of each motion so you can benchmark performance against SaaS peers.

Annual recurring revenue from existing customers at the start of the period.
Upsell and cross-sell revenue captured during the period as a percent of starting ARR.
Downsell or downgrade revenue lost from existing customers as a percent of starting ARR.
Revenue lost from customers who fully churn during the period as a percent of starting ARR.

Financial projections are estimates. Align your assumptions with company reporting policies before sharing externally.

Examples

  • $5,000,000 starting ARR, 18% expansion, 4% contraction, 9% churn ⇒ Net revenue retention: 105.00% • Gross revenue retention: 91.00% • End-of-period ARR: $5,250,000.00 • Incremental ARR change: $250,000.00 • Expansion captured: $900,000.00 • Revenue lost to contraction: $200,000.00 • Revenue lost to churn: $450,000.00 • Outcome: +5.00% net growth • Contraction drag on ARR: 4.00%
  • $12,500,000 starting ARR, 10% expansion, 6% contraction, 12% churn ⇒ Net revenue retention: 92.00% • Gross revenue retention: 88.00% • End-of-period ARR: $11,500,000.00 • Incremental ARR change: -$1,000,000.00 • Expansion captured: $1,250,000.00 • Revenue lost to contraction: $750,000.00 • Revenue lost to churn: $1,500,000.00 • Outcome: 8.00% net shrinkage • Contraction drag on ARR: 6.00%

FAQ

How should I treat multi-year or prepaid deals?

Normalize contract values to ARR equivalents before entering them so expansion, contraction, and churn percentages align with recurring revenue reporting and comparable SaaS benchmarks.

Can I include net-new logo wins in this model?

No. Net revenue retention isolates the existing customer base. Layer in net-new ARR separately to build a total revenue plan for the period.

What if expansion and churn happen in different months?

Enter rates that reflect the same overall measurement window (for example, quarterly). Run separate scenarios for each period to understand seasonality or cohort-specific trends.

How do I benchmark the results?

Compare your NRR and gross retention outputs against public SaaS comps in your revenue band—for instance, 110%+ NRR is common for best-in-class enterprise SaaS, while 90–100% is typical for mid-market platforms.

Additional Information

  • Expansion, contraction, and churn percentages are applied to the same starting ARR baseline, keeping the components comparable.
  • Net revenue retention above 100% signals the existing customer base is expanding even without new logo wins.
  • Gross revenue retention isolates churn only, highlighting the health of renewals before expansion offsets losses.
  • Contraction captures downgrade revenue while churn removes fully lost accounts; together they explain the drag on ARR.
  • For accuracy, measure all inputs over the same cadence (monthly, quarterly, or annually) and convert multi-year deals to ARR equivalents.

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