Mass Content Indexation Rate Forecast

Launching thousands of URLs at once can overwhelm crawl budgets. This heuristic looks at your domain authority, internal linking, freshness cadence, sitemap habits, and orphan ratio to forecast what percentage of pages search engines are likely to index.

Include all fresh pages pinged to search engines this month.
Use the latest Moz DA, Ahrefs DR, or comparable score on a 0–100 scale.
Count contextual links plus navigation links pointing to each new page.
Average number of days between updates on existing pages in the cluster.
Leave blank to assume two sitemap pings per week for new batches.
Leave blank to assume 10% of new URLs lack internal links.

Forecasting heuristic only. Validate with actual crawl and index coverage logs.

Examples

  • Large blog: 3,500 URLs, DR 48, 12 internal links, 7-day refresh, default pings ⇒ Projected indexation rate: 67.45% of submitted URLs. Expected indexed pages: 2,361 per month.
  • Ecommerce launch: 800 URLs, DR 32, 6 internal links, 21-day refresh, sitemap 1, orphan ratio 0.25 ⇒ Projected indexation rate: 64.80% of submitted URLs. Expected indexed pages: 518 per month.

FAQ

How can I improve the projected rate?

Boost internal links to priority pages, refresh stale content more often, reduce orphaned URLs, and avoid publishing surges that exceed your crawl budget.

Does this replace Search Console data?

No. Use it to set expectations pre-launch, then validate against Search Console coverage reports and adjust inputs monthly.

Why is there a minimum of 5%?

Even low-authority sites usually get a small portion indexed. The floor prevents negative projections when penalty factors stack up.

Additional Information

  • Authority factor scales linearly with DR but caps the forecast at 95% to reflect crawl variability even for strong domains.
  • The orphan ratio penalty assumes unlinked URLs struggle to pass PageRank; audit navigation and XML sitemaps to reduce it.
  • Increase sitemap pings during heavy publishing periods to improve discovery speed without overloading crawl budget.

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