Home Solar Profitability Forecaster

Model the profitability of installing residential solar. Combine system cost, production, retail rates, and optional incentives, degradation, and export credits to forecast year-one savings, payback time, and long-run ROI.

Total turnkey cost before incentives
Expected first-year generation
Current retail electricity price
Timeframe for ROI analysis
Optional. Defaults to $0 if blank.
Optional. Defaults to production if blank.
Optional. Defaults to 0.5% if blank.
Optional. Defaults to $120/year if blank.
Optional. Defaults to retail rate if blank.
Optional. Defaults to 2% if blank.

Examples

  • $22,000 cost, 9,500 kWh production, $0.21/kWh, 20 years, $6,500 incentives, 8,700 kWh load, 0.7% degradation, $150 maintenance, $0.08 export, 2% escalation ⇒ Net system cost: $15,500.00. Year-one savings: $1,741.00. Simple payback: 8.9 years. 20-year ROI: 155.3%.
  • $18,000 cost, 7,200 kWh production, $0.18/kWh, 15 years, incentives blank, consumption blank, defaults for other fields ⇒ Net system cost: $18,000.00. Year-one savings: $1,176.00. Simple payback: 15.3 years. 15-year ROI: 10.0%.

FAQ

How do I model battery storage?

Reduce exported kWh by raising the household consumption input, or increase maintenance to account for battery service contracts.

What if my utility credit matches retail prices?

Leave the export field blank to mirror net-metering parity. The calculator will reuse your retail rate for exported kWh.

Can I change the utility rate over time?

Yes. Adjust the escalation percentage to represent expected annual price growth from your utility or regional forecasts.

Additional Information

  • Savings separate self-consumed energy at the retail rate and exported energy at the chosen credit value.
  • Annual degradation reduces both onsite usage and exports after each year before applying the next rate escalation.
  • Maintenance costs are treated as fixed yearly expenses covering cleaning, inspections, or inverter service plans.

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