Heat Pump Carbon Parity Year Calculator
Identify how many years of grid decarbonisation are required before an electrified heating system emits less carbon than the incumbent gas equipment.
Analytical aid for electrification planning; confirm with jurisdiction-specific emission factors and detailed energy models before final project approval.
Examples
- 18,000 kWh load, gas intensity 0.24 kg/kWh, grid 0.35 kg/kWh, COP 3.2, 6% decarbonisation ⇒ immediate parity with 1,279.50 kg CO2e avoided per year.
- 20,000 kWh load, gas intensity 0.19 kg/kWh, grid 0.55 kg/kWh, COP 2.5, 7% decarbonisation ⇒ parity in year 3 with annual savings of 260.83 kg CO2e.
FAQ
What if my utility provides a published decarbonisation trajectory?
Use the average annual reduction implied by that trajectory. For non-linear schedules, run multiple scenarios that bracket the published pathway.
Does the calculation include refrigerant leakage?
Direct refrigerant emissions are excluded. Add leakage impacts to the gas baseline or subtract from the avoided emissions if you need a full lifecycle comparison.
How can I model demand response or thermal storage?
Adjust the annual heating load to reflect shifted consumption and revise the grid emission factor if you plan to charge storage during specific marginal emissions windows.
Additional Information
- Result unit: number of years until annual heat pump emissions fall below the gas baseline.
- Heat pump emission intensity equals electric grid intensity divided by the seasonal coefficient of performance.
- Grid decarbonisation applies exponentially: each year multiplies intensity by (1 − rate).