FedRAMP ATO Delay Burn Rate Calculator

FedRAMP slippage can stall seven-figure federal annual recurring revenue. Provide the monthly ARR unlocked by the authority to operate, how long the launch is delayed, and optional win probability, compliance burn, and discount-rate assumptions. The calculator exposes deferred revenue, operating burn, and present-value drag so GTM, finance, and compliance teams can size the cash buffer required to survive the wait.

Recurring revenue expected once the ATO is in place.
Months your launch is pushed while waiting for the authorization.
Defaults to 70.00% to reflect federal procurement uncertainty.
Defaults to $45,000 covering 3PAO support, SSP upkeep, and shared security staff.
Defaults to 8.00% annual, converted to monthly for present-value loss.

Coordinate with your FedRAMP sponsor, finance team, and legal counsel when updating forecasts or seeking additional runway.

Examples

  • $420,000 ARR/month, 7-month delay, 70% win probability, $45,000 compliance burn, 8.00% discount ⇒ Probability-weighted ARR $294,000.00 • Revenue deferred $2,058,000.00 • Compliance burn $315,000.00 • Total cash at risk $2,373,000.00 • PV revenue hit $1,926,209.96.
  • $180,000 ARR/month, 4-month delay, 55% win probability, $35,000 compliance burn, discount left blank ⇒ Probability-weighted ARR $99,000.00 • Revenue deferred $396,000.00 • Compliance burn $140,000.00 • Total cash at risk $536,000.00 • PV revenue hit $381,267.73.

FAQ

How do I estimate monthly ARR from multi-year IDIQ awards?

Divide the expected total contract value by the performance period months to produce an average monthly run rate, then apply the win probability to temper it.

Should I include FedRAMP marketplace marketing spend in compliance burn?

Yes. Add any dedicated capture or marketing headcount to the monthly burn input so the cash at risk reflects the full go-to-market investment.

What discount rate should I use for PV loss?

Most finance teams default to their weighted average cost of capital or an 8–12% hurdle for SaaS deals. Match whatever rate you use in other ATO business cases.

Can this tool handle successive delays?

Update the delay months each time the authorization timeline slips—compliance costs and deferred revenue stack linearly in the model.

Additional Information

  • Probability input lets you temper ARR projections based on pipeline health and incumbent competition.
  • Compliance burn captures continuous SSP updates, vulnerability management, and 3PAO readiness work during the delay.
  • Present-value loss discounts missed cash receipts at the corporate hurdle rate to show the true economic drag.
  • Layer migration or product hardening spend separately if engineers are diverted to remediate findings during the delay.

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