Email Subscriber Lifetime Value
Translate your email program's revenue and churn into a defensible subscriber lifetime value. Provide ARPU and churn, then optionally layer in a discount rate to reflect risk and time value so you can benchmark CAC and sponsorship pricing.
For planning only. Validate ARPU, churn, and risk assumptions against your historical performance before setting budgets.
Examples
- $4.50 ARPU, 5% churn, 10% discount rate ⇒ Subscriber LTV: $30.00 USD • Assumed monthly churn: 5.00% • Discount rate applied: 10.00% • Expected revenue duration: 6.67 months.
- $6.00 ARPU, 3% churn, 8% discount rate ⇒ Subscriber LTV: $42.86 USD • Assumed monthly churn: 3.00% • Discount rate applied: 8.00% • Expected revenue duration: 7.14 months.
FAQ
Should I use gross or contribution margin?
Use contribution margin per subscriber for a more realistic LTV that covers variable costs and leaves room for CAC.
Can I account for upsells or growth?
This model assumes flat ARPU. If you expect expansion revenue, increase ARPU to reflect your best forecast.
How is expected duration calculated?
It is the inverse of churn plus discount rate, showing the effective months of revenue captured in the LTV.
Additional Information
- Result unit: USD for subscriber lifetime value plus churn, discount rate, and expected months of revenue horizon.
- Defaults to a 10.00% discount rate when no rate is provided.
- Uses a simple steady-state LTV formula without cohort decay or expansion revenue.