Data Center Renewable Curtailment Risk Calculator

Quantify how much of your contracted renewable supply may be curtailed before it covers data center demand. Enter the annual generation, load, curtailment assumptions, and optional storage mitigation to see deliverable MWh and coverage.

Nameplate energy expected from PPAs or RECs over the analysis year.
IT plus overhead energy you plan to match with the contracted supply.
Percent of matched generation likely curtailed due to grid congestion or negative pricing.
Share of contracted generation that aligns with the facility load window.
Defaults to 0 MWh. Enter energy shifting recovered via batteries or market trades.

Planning aid for energy program managers; validate against PPA contract language and grid operator forecasts before making procurement commitments.

Examples

  • 120,000 MWh contracted, 110,000 MWh load, 8% curtailment, 0.90 time matching, 2,000 MWh storage ⇒ Matched energy 108,000.00 MWh, curtailment exposure 8,640.00 MWh, deliverable 101,360.00 MWh, coverage 92.15%, shortfall 8,640.00 MWh.
  • 75,000 MWh contracted, 60,000 MWh load, 5% curtailment, 0.70 time matching with no storage ⇒ Matched energy 52,500.00 MWh, curtailment exposure 2,625.00 MWh, deliverable 49,875.00 MWh, coverage 83.12%, shortfall 10,125.00 MWh.

FAQ

How should I estimate the time-matching factor?

Blend hourly renewable production forecasts against facility demand profiles. Many operators start with the ratio of coincident hours above a minimum threshold across the year.

Can I reflect curtailment hedges or market trades?

Yes. Add the expected recovered MWh to the storage mitigation field so long as those trades are firm for the same delivery window.

What if deliverable energy exceeds my load?

The calculator caps the coverage display at 100% and reports excess MWh. Document how you plan to monetize or bank that surplus so the renewable accounting stays auditable.

Additional Information

  • Result unit: megawatt-hours of deliverable renewable energy versus annual facility load.
  • Storage mitigation defaults to 0 MWh when left blank and cannot exceed the curtailment exposure plus unmatched generation.
  • Coverage is capped at 100% in the display even when deliverable energy exceeds the matched load window.

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