Content Decay Recovery Forecast

Gauge whether an article update or republishing sprint is worth it. Enter historic peak traffic, the decay rate, and time since peak to estimate the post-refresh traffic once you claw back a share of the lost visits.

Highest monthly sessions recorded for the content cluster.
Average month-over-month decline from analytics.
Number of months the decay has been compounding.
Optional. Defaults to reclaiming 60% of lost traffic after refresh.

Examples

  • 35,000 peak visits, 12% decay, 6 months, 60% recovery ⇒ projected traffic 27,501.66 visits/month
  • 18,000 peak visits, 8% decay, 9 months, 45% recovery ⇒ projected traffic 12,774.40 visits/month

FAQ

How do I estimate decay rate?

Divide recent months to get an average percentage drop, or fit a trendline to Search Console clicks for a smoother rate.

Can I model different recovery scenarios?

Yes. Run the calculator multiple times with conservative and aggressive recovery percentages to bracket possible outcomes.

Does this include seasonality?

Not directly—adjust peak traffic or decay assumptions to account for seasonal highs or lows before forecasting.

Additional Information

  • Decay compounds monthly, so each period multiplies by (1 − decay rate).
  • Recovery percentage captures expected uplift relative to lost traffic after refreshing, expanding, or redirecting the content.
  • Result reflects the new steady-state month immediately after the refresh once gains stabilise.

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