Carbon Removal Offtake Delivery Reserve Calculator
Combine contracted tonnes, penalty clauses, and optional replacement procurement assumptions to size the cash reserve needed to manage carbon removal delivery risk.
Financial planning aid. Coordinate with legal and accounting advisors before recognising reserves on financial statements or modifying offtake contracts.
Examples
- 5,000 tCO₂ contract, 20% shortfall share, $150 penalty, $275 replacement cost, 70% probability ⇒ Tonnes covered 1,000.00 tCO₂ | Reserve before probability $425,000.00 USD | Probability-weighted reserve $297,500.00 USD | Reserve per contracted ton $59.50 USD/t.
- 12,000 tCO₂ contract, 10% shortfall, $200 penalty, no replacement cost, probability left blank ⇒ Tonnes covered 1,200.00 tCO₂ | Reserve before probability $240,000.00 USD | Required reserve $240,000.00 USD | Reserve per contracted ton $20.00 USD/t.
FAQ
How do I estimate the shortfall share?
Use vendor track record, insurance engineering reports, or scenario modelling to identify the percentage of tonnes at risk under a P95 or worst-case delivery profile.
Should I include make-up deliveries scheduled in future years?
Yes. Convert deferred delivery obligations into equivalent replacement cost or penalty exposure for the analysis window so the reserve covers timing gaps as well as outright cancellations.
What if the contract requires both refunds and replacement tonnes?
Add the refund amount to the penalty input and the procurement expense to the replacement cost field so the calculator captures both legs of the obligation.
Additional Information
- Result unit: reserve dollars in USD and tCO₂ coverage.
- Replacement cost defaults to zero, capturing only penalty exposure when market replacement is not planned.
- Probability weighting defaults to 100%, yielding a conservative reserve sized for the full shortfall scenario.