AI Feature Flag Risk Budget Calculator

Compare projected incidents during feature-flagged AI launches with the allowed budget while accounting for mitigation coverage.

Multiplier that reflects incident severity or regulatory impact.
Distinct users or sessions exposed to the flagged experience.
Estimated chance of a harmful outcome per exposed user.
Maximum incidents permitted during the experiment window.
Share of exposures neutralised by filters or human review. Defaults to 0%.

Governance estimator. Pair with legal review and production monitoring before expanding exposure to general availability.

Examples

  • Severity 4, 50,000 users, failure probability 0.15%, incident budget 12, mitigation 35% ⇒ 48.75 expected incidents, weighted risk 195.00, utilization 406.25% (over budget).
  • Severity 2, 12,000 users, failure probability 0.05%, incident budget 8, mitigation blank ⇒ 6.00 expected incidents, weighted risk 12.00, utilization 75.00% (within budget).

FAQ

What should count as an incident?

Define an incident as any harmful output that breaches policy or contractual obligations. Align the definition with the escalations tracked in your AI safety incident coverage reporting.

How often should I refresh the failure probability?

Update the probability with rolling evaluation data, abuse reports, and offline tests after each model or prompt release. Stale failure rates quickly undermine the budget.

Can I compare multiple flags?

Yes. Run the calculator for each flag and sum expected incidents to check the aggregate risk against organisation-wide budgets.

Additional Information

  • Result unit: incidents and severity-weighted incident points.
  • Mitigation coverage reduces exposure; document filter efficacy or reviewer acceptance rates to support the input.
  • Use separate calculators for monetary impact if you translate incidents into liability reserves.

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